PKG

Packaging Corporation of America

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$218.91

+$5.27 (2.41%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$228.20

Upside+4.24%

Signal2.12

Market Cap$18.8B

52W Range$172.72–$249.51

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:11 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$105.51

Current Price$202.73

Upside / Down-48.0%

P(Undervalued)1.5%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)93.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

1.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.6%/yr

±7.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

16.4%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Packaging Corp containerboard; low-cost producer advantage; industrial e-commerce demand.

Bear Case

Containerboard pricing cycle; input cost (wood fiber) inflation; capacity additions.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

PKG 10-K 2025: Greif Acquisition Drives Scale, Strong Pricing Power

PKG: 3rd largest North American containerboard producer. FY2025 EBITDA ex-special items grew 13.7% to ,862M on pricing power (+/ton March 2026), though integration of .8B Greif acquisition just begun....