PM

Philip Morris International Inc.

Consumer DefensiveTobaccoNASDAQ

$177.38

-$10.43 (-5.88%)today

Conviction

8/ 10

Fair Value$195.17

Upside+10.03%

Signal8.02

Market Cap$247.2B

52W Range$142.11–$191.30

Next EarningsApr 22

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Apr 13, 2026, 12:13 AM7→8

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$177.53

Current Price$163.11

Upside / Down+8.8%

P(Undervalued)66.9%

P(20%+ Up)29.8%

P(15%+ Down)9.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

66.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

5.3%/yr

±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

2.5%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Global tobacco volume decline offset by smoke-free portfolio (ZYN, IQOS); pricing power intact; tariff-immune offshore production.

Bear Case

Regulatory crackdown on oral nicotine pouches could cap growth; high leverage from PMI acquisition.

Research Feed

analysisMar 30

Conviction: unchanged

PM — Conviction Synthesis: Smoke-Free Transformation at Reasonable Valuation

PM at $164.83 is a 7/10 conviction buy. Smoke-free transformation is credible and accelerating (SFP 22.8% of volume, IQOS FDA-authorized). 14-27% upside to analyst targets with 3.2% dividend yield. Ke...

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

PM FY2025 10-K: Smoke-Free Transformation Accelerating, Combustible Rationalization Underway

PMI delivered .6B net revenues (+7.3%, +6.5% ex-currency/A&D) in FY2025. Smoke-free product volumes grew 12.8% to 179.1B EUs, now 22.8% of total mix. GAAP diluted EPS of .26 (+60.6% vs 2024), heavily ...