No conviction changes recorded
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
66.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
5.3%/yr
±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
2.5%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
PM at $164.83 is a 7/10 conviction buy. Smoke-free transformation is credible and accelerating (SFP 22.8% of volume, IQOS FDA-authorized). 14-27% upside to analyst targets with 3.2% dividend yield. Ke...
PMI delivered .6B net revenues (+7.3%, +6.5% ex-currency/A&D) in FY2025. Smoke-free product volumes grew 12.8% to 179.1B EUs, now 22.8% of total mix. GAAP diluted EPS of .26 (+60.6% vs 2024), heavily ...