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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
2.2% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
23.0%/yr
±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
30.3%/yr
±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockEVOLUTION 2 closed-loop type 2 data presenting at ATTD this week — first clinical proof of fully automated insulin delivery for T2D. Omnipod 5 growing 25%+ with international expansion runway (EU, Japan). RSI 39 near oversold with 30% upside to $310 target. Two catalyst events in the next 60 days.
Stock crashed 22% post-GLP-1 fear and hasn't recovered. If EVOLUTION 2 data disappoints, the T2D expansion thesis takes a major hit. Insulin pump market is competitive (Medtronic 780G, Tandem Mobi) and pricing pressure is real. Manufacturing scale-up for Omnipod 5 international is execution-dependent.
EVOLUTION 2 clinical failure, Omnipod 5 market share loss below 30%, GLP-1 proven to eliminate insulin pump need
Updated Mar 11
Insulet presented EVOLUTION 2 trial results showing 68% TIR for fully closed-loop automated insulin delivery in Type 2 adults at ATTD conference. Positive clinical validation of T2D market expansion t...
Insulet issued a voluntary correction for specific Omnipod 5 pod lots due to a small internal tubing tear causing insulin delivery failures. 18 serious adverse events including hospitalizations and DK...
Insulet presenting clinical results for Omnipod fully closed-loop (FCL) system in type 2 diabetes at ATTD 2026 in Barcelona today. This is new clinical data for their T2D FCL expansion — a major thesi...
FY2025 10-K confirms strong execution. Revenue +30.7% to $2.71B (const curr +29.5%). Gross margin 71.6% (+180bps). Adj EBITDA $645.5M (+41%). FCF $377.7M. Deleveraged 40% (debt $949M from $1.38B). Net...
Insulet delivered 30.7% revenue growth (.7B) with 180 bps gross margin expansion (71.6%) driven by manufacturing efficiency, ASP/mix, and volume leverage. Net debt down 40% (.4B→M) via .5M convertible...