POOL

Pool Corporation

IndustrialsIndustrial DistributionNASDAQ

$181.40

-$0.29 (-0.16%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$266.09

Upside+46.69%

Signal23.34

Market Cap$7.4B

52W Range$195.49–$345

Next EarningsApr 23

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 3:11 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$121.63

Current Price$200.34

Upside / Down-39.3%

P(Undervalued)2.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)89.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

2.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

10.3%/yr

±7.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

22.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

POOL 2025 10-K: Post-Pandemic Normalization Complete, Maintenance Resilient

POOL 2025 10-K shows post-pandemic normalization with flat revenue, stable gross margin, but declining operating income. Maintenance products resilient; new construction and remodeling under pressure ...