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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
39.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
3.4%/yr
±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
12.6%/yr
±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockDeeply oversold at RSI 27, near lower Bollinger band — a mean-reversion bounce is likely before a longer recovery. Housing starts will eventually recover as Fed eventually pivots; PPG is a levered play on that cycle.
Oil shock → rising petrochemical input costs eat margins while stagflation kills housing/construction demand. Revenue already under pressure in automotive OEM coatings globally. Entry target $95 not yet reached ($104).
Sustained $100+ oil, US housing starts fall below 1M, major customer concentration loss
Updated Mar 12
PPG down 23% over past month and ~10% past week following Q4 earnings miss. 2026 guidance: flat to low single-digit organic sales growth, mid-single-digit EPS growth, stronger H2. Coatings sector face...
2025 adjusted EPS .58 vs .87 in 2024 (-3.7%). Revenue flat at .9B. Aerospace up double-digit with M backlog. Auto refinish structurally challenged. 2026 organic guidance flat to low single-digit. Stro...
Sales flat YoY (.9B), but operating leverage improved. EPS up 21% (.92) driven by lower restructuring charges, pricing gains, and productivity. Aerospace double-digit growth offsets auto refinish decl...