PSX

Phillips 66
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ
$181.98
+$9.74 (5.35%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$168.30
Upside-7.52%
Signal0
Market Cap$74.1B
52W Range$91.01–$190.61
Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid
Fair Value$398.46
Current Price$175.47
Upside / Down+127.1%
P(Undervalued)88.9%
P(20%+ Up)84.1%
P(15%+ Down)8.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

88.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.7%/yr

±10.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

17.7%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally.

Trailing P/E17.1x
Forward P/E13.2x
P/S0.6x
EPS (TTM)$10.79
Analyst Target$168.30
Analyst Upside-7.5%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
Phillips 66 FY2025 10-K Analysis

PSX integrated downstream energy leader diversifying into renewables; strong midstream, exposed refining cycles and feedstock volatility. Capital-intensive growth projects ahead (CPChem 2027). LA refi...