PSX

Phillips 66

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ

$175.88

+$1.85 (1.05%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$175.35

Upside-0.30%

Signal0

Market Cap$63.9B

52W Range$91.01–$190.61

Next EarningsApr 29

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$398.46

Current Price$175.47

Upside / Down+127.1%

P(Undervalued)88.9%

P(20%+ Up)84.1%

P(15%+ Down)8.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

88.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.7%/yr

±10.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

17.7%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally.

Trailing P/E16.3x

Forward P/E12.1x

P/S0.5x

EPS (TTM)$10.78

Analyst Target$175.35

Analyst Upside-0.3%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

Phillips 66 FY2025 10-K Analysis

PSX integrated downstream energy leader diversifying into renewables; strong midstream, exposed refining cycles and feedstock volatility. Capital-intensive growth projects ahead (CPChem 2027). LA refi...