Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
1.5% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
27.1%/yr
±6.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
37.8%/yr
±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Quanta Services, Inc.
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Quanta Services: Utility-scale infrastructure provider benefiting from grid modernization + data center capex. Strong market position (preferred provider, 70% utility customer base) offset by labor in...