Q

Qnity Electronics, Inc.

TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsNASDAQ

$156

+$3.31 (2.12%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$139.38

Upside-10.66%

Signal0

Market Cap$24.8B

52W Range$70.50–$140.60

Next EarningsMay 12

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:06 AM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$54.45

Current Price$107.59

Upside / Down-49.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

17.8%/yr

±5.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

15.0%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Quintus/Qorvo RF chips for smartphones; defense RF content increasing per unit.

Bear Case

Apple concentration risk; Android market share pressure; semi capex cycle.

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Qnity Electronics 2025 10-K: AI/HPC Megatrends, Execution Risks on Spin

Newly spun Qnity is a critical materials supplier riding AI/HPC supercycle, but faces post-IPO integration, heavy debt (4.1B), customer concentration (Samsung/TSMC = 19% combined), China exposure (33%...