Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
36.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
6.5%/yr
±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-0.5%/yr
±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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