RCL

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Consumer CyclicalTravel ServicesNASDAQ

$284.63

+$26.58 (9.34%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$360.50

Upside+26.66%

Signal0

Market Cap$72.3B

52W Range$176–$366.50

Next EarningsApr 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$64.10

Current Price$263.65

Upside / Down-75.7%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

35.8%/yr

±3.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

66.0%/yr

±4.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Trailing P/E17.0x

Forward P/E12.9x

P/S4.0x

EPS (TTM)$15.62

Analyst Target$360.50

Analyst Upside26.7%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

Royal Caribbean 2025 10-K: Demand Recovery Intact, Fleet Expansion Disciplined

RCL 10-K shows demand recovery intact with 9.4M passengers (2025) vs 8.6M (2024), 109.7% occupancy. Fleet disciplined with 12 ships on order through 2028. Key risks: regulatory (EU ETS, IMO CII), cape...