REG

Regency Centers Corporation

Real EstateREIT - RetailNASDAQ

$77.35

-$0.98 (-1.26%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$81.79

Upside+5.74%

Signal2.3

Market Cap$14.7B

52W Range$63.44–$79.90

Next EarningsApr 29

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:06 AM5→4conviction-rescore

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$42.97

Current Price$74.87

Upside / Down-42.6%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)96.8%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

16.6%/yr

±3.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

10.3%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

Regency Centers grocery-anchored REIT; Publix/Kroger anchor tenants; necessity retail resilient.

Bear Case

Consumer spending stress on discretionary strip tenants; rate sensitivity.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

REG FY2025 10-K: Defensive Grocery Portfolio Facing Macro Headwinds & Refinancing Risk

REG offers defensive grocery-anchored retail but faces refinancing headwinds and consumer spending risks in 2026-2027. Concentration in CA/FL adds climate/insurance pressure. Thesis: Hold pending macr...