RF

Regions Financial Corporation

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$28

+$0.29 (1.05%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$29.97

Upside+7.03%

Signal3.51

Market Cap$23.7B

52W Range$17.74–$31.53

Next EarningsApr 17

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$28.97

Current Price$25.36

Upside / Down+14.2%

P(Undervalued)78.3%

P(20%+ Up)37.9%

P(15%+ Down)4.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

78.3% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-0.5%/yr

±4.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-13.1%/yr

±2.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

Regions Financial Southeast bank; NIM expansion tailwind; credit quality resilient in Sunbelt.

Bear Case

CRE office exposure; rate sensitivity if cuts accelerate; consumer credit normalization.

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

RF FY2025 10-K Analysis: Well-Capitalized Regional with Headwinds

Well-capitalized regional bank with solid Southeast franchise but facing FDIC assessment headwind, CRE concerns, and intense competition. Valuation at 1.26x book appears full given risk profile.