SBAC

SBA Communications Corporation

Real EstateREIT - SpecialtyNASDAQ

$203.16

-$4.79 (-2.36%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$223.80

Upside+10.16%

Signal5.08

Market Cap$23.7B

52W Range$162.41–$245.16

Next EarningsApr 27

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$144.16

Current Price$174.15

Upside / Down-17.2%

P(Undervalued)16.8%

P(20%+ Up)3.2%

P(15%+ Down)55.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

16.8% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.7%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

15.8%/yr

±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

SBA Communications FY2025: Acquisition-Driven Growth Offset by Churn and Impairments

SBAC acquired 7K+ towers via Millicom but faces $168-171M churn headwinds in 2026 from EchoStar, Sprint, and Oi. Impairments surged 94%. Interest rates +17% weighing on $13B debt. Brazil currency & ma...