SJM

The J. M. Smucker Company

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$103.20

+$1.31 (1.27%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$127

Upside+23.06%

Signal11.53

Market Cap$10.2B

52W Range$93.30–$119.39

Next EarningsFeb 26

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:11 AM4→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$160.31

Current Price$99.37

Upside / Down+61.3%

P(Undervalued)99.7%

P(20%+ Up)93.2%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

99.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-4.6%/yr

±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

11.3%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 FY2026 10-Q Analysis: Hostess Write-Down Complete, Core Business Stable

SJM 10-Q shows continued Hostess deterioration ($962M impairment, full goodwill write-off, brand reclassified to finite-lived) while core coffee/pet/spreads businesses remain fundamentally sound but f...