SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

TechnologyComputer HardwareNASDAQ

$46.09

+$17.40 (37.75%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$34.53

Upside-25.07%

Signal0

Market Cap$13.4B

52W Range$19.48–$62.36

Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 5:07 AM4→5conviction-rescore

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$150.57

Current Price$20.53

Upside / Down+633.4%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-7.1%/yr

±3.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-5.8%/yr

±2.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

Super Micro Computer AI server racks; direct liquid cooling for GPU clusters; hyperscaler demand.

Bear Case

Accounting restatement risk/audit issues; Nvidia GPU allocation competition; margin pressure from ODMs.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

SMCI Q2 2026 10-Q Analysis: Revenue Boom, Margin Collapse, Inventory Risk

SMCI Q2 revenue up 123% YoY to $12.68B on AI GPU server demand. Gross margin collapsed 550bp to 6.3% due to pricing/mix/tariffs. Inventory at $10.6B (+126% in 6M), AR at $11.0B (71.6% from one custome...