Research/

SPY

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
NASDAQ
$756.48
+$14.01 (1.85%)today
Conviction
4/ 10
Fair Value$540
Upside-28.62%
Signal0
Market Cap$623.6B
52W Range$489.16–$697.84
Next Earnings—

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kApr 8
Conviction: unchanged
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — ETF Coverage Initiation: Broad Market Macro Proxy

ETF, S&P 500 proxy. No fundamentals. Risk-off macro hurts earnings estimates. Tariff cycle threatening corporate margins. More defensive than QQQ but still at-risk.

sec_10kInvalid Date
Conviction: unchanged
SPY N-CEN FY2025 — Institutional Distribution Deepens; Rich Valuation Leaves No Margin of Safety

N-CEN FY2025 confirms institutional net distribution (Merrill -12B, Goldman -4B net AP flows, AUM -13% from year-end). At 26x trailing PE with tariff-driven EPS compression risk, fair value ~90-550. M...