SRE

Sempra
UtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedNASDAQ
$89.13
-$2.36 (-2.64%)today
Conviction
5/ 10
Fair Value$102.88
Upside+15.42%
Signal7.71
Market Cap$64.6B
52W Range$62.38–$99.28
Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 6, 2026, 6:52 AM65sec-read
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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 18% valid
Low confidence model
Fair Value$6.33
Current Price$91.72
Upside / Down-93.1%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

33.1%/yr

±5.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Sempra LNG export terminals strategic; California/Texas regulated utility stable; Oncor stake.

Bear Case

LNG permit risk; California regulatory uncertainty; Texas storm liability overhang.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 10
Conviction: unchanged
Sempra FY2025 10-K Deep Read: $65B Capex Plan Solid, CA Regulatory Hits Confirmed, Valuation Limits Upside

FY2025 adj EPS $4.69 (+1% YoY). 2026 guidance $4.80-$5.30. 2030 outlook $6.70-$7.50 (8% CAGR). $65B 5yr capex plan (95% regulated TX/CA). KKR deal ($10B for 45% SI Partners) expected Q2-Q3 2026. Major...

sec_10kMar 6
Conviction: unchanged
Sempra FY2025 10-K: Stock Recovery Mostly Priced In; CA Litigation Risk Caps Upside

SRE at $91.66 has rallied ~45% from 52w low on trough-year clarity + KKR deal + Oncor growth. Forward PE 16.6x on $5.52 consensus is reasonable but not cheap. Analyst mean $101.50 is 10% upside — insu...

sec_10kMar 6
Conviction: unchanged
Sempra Energy FY2025 10-K: Regulated Utility Core Intact, Trough Year Obscures Recovery Setup

SRE FY2025 was a messy year: EPS dropped from $4.42 to $2.75 due to one-time hits (GRC disallowances $432M, $703M deferred tax from SI Partners held-for-sale reclassification). Stripping those out, th...

sec_10kMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
Sempra Energy 2025 10-K: Stabilized Utilities + Infrastructure Drag

Sempra 2025: Regulated utility stalwart undermined by bloated infrastructure portfolio. California utilities stable (SDG&E/SoCalGas 5-6% EPS growth), but SI Partners impairment cascade looming. SI inf...