STLD

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Basic MaterialsSteelNASDAQ

$260.15

+$31.77 (12.21%)today

Conviction

3/ 10

Fair Value$188.25

Upside-27.64%

Signal0

Market Cap$27.6B

52W Range$108.27–$208.47

Next EarningsApr 20

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:07 AM5→3conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$91.08

Current Price$163.95

Upside / Down-44.4%

P(Undervalued)5.1%

P(20%+ Up)0.6%

P(15%+ Down)86.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

5.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

12.5%/yr

±9.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

44.1%/yr

±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

analysisMar 26

Conviction: unchanged

STLD Q1 2026 Outlook: Tariff Tailwind Driving EPS Near-Double YoY, Aluminum Mill Ahead of Schedule

Q1 2026 EPS guidance .73-.77 nearly doubles Q1 2025 .44. Driven by 25% steel tariff protection (HRC prices rising) and aluminum mill ramp to ~90% utilization ahead of schedule. Backlog to Q3 2026. Bul...

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

STLD 2025 10-K: Record Steel Volumes Offset by Metal Spread Compression

STLD posted record steel shipments (+9%) but consolidated operating income fell 24% due to metal spread compression in core steel and fabrication segments. Aluminum mill ramping, generating losses but...