P(above current)=2.2% and DCF FV=$84 vs price $169.69 — model says ~98% chance we are above fair value. Old target $42 is stale (far below price). Cyclical steel company with tariff tailwinds helping near-term but structural overvaluation is clear.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
5.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
12.5%/yr
±9.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
44.1%/yr
±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Q1 2026 EPS guidance .73-.77 nearly doubles Q1 2025 .44. Driven by 25% steel tariff protection (HRC prices rising) and aluminum mill ramp to ~90% utilization ahead of schedule. Backlog to Q3 2026. Bul...
STLD posted record steel shipments (+9%) but consolidated operating income fell 24% due to metal spread compression in core steel and fabrication segments. Aluminum mill ramping, generating losses but...