STX

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

TechnologyComputer HardwareNASDAQ

$411

+$4.27 (1.04%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$477.61

Upside+16.21%

Signal0

Market Cap$81.2B

52W Range$63.19–$459.84

Next EarningsMay 5

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$109.93

Current Price$411.23

Upside / Down-73.3%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

37.6%/yr

±2.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

76.1%/yr

±4.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.

Trailing P/E40.9x

Forward P/E18.3x

P/S8.1x

EPS (TTM)$8.86

Analyst Target$477.61

Analyst Upside16.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

STX Q2 FY2026 10-Q: AI Infrastructure Cycle Driving Exceptional Operating Leverage

STX Q2 FY2026 beat all metrics: revenue .825B (+21.5% YoY), gross margin 42% (+700bps YoY), net income M (+76% YoY). Nearline exabytes shipped +31% YoY to 165EB, fully validating AI-driven data center...