STZ

Constellation Brands, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveBeverages - BrewersNASDAQ

$138.82

-$11.05 (-7.96%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$177.64

Upside+27.96%

Signal19.57

Market Cap$28.9B

52W Range$126.45–$196.91

Next EarningsJul 1

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:07 AM5→7conviction-rescore

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$260.20

Current Price$149.62

Upside / Down+73.9%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)96.9%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-5.4%/yr

±2.9% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-4.7%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

Premium Content

Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.

Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 FY2026 10-Q Analysis: Beer Resilient But Headwinds Mount

Q3 FY2026: Beer resilient (-1% rev) but depletions weak (-3%). Tariffs costing $70M FY26. W&S restructured to premium-only. Consumer demand soft. Debt elevated at $10.7B.