SW

Smurfit Westrock Plc

Consumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersNASDAQ

$41.15

+$3.72 (9.04%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$56.20

Upside+36.57%

Signal25.6

Market Cap$22.1B

52W Range$32.73–$52.65

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 1:08 AM5→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 93% valid

Fair Value$79.05

Current Price$36.21

Upside / Down+118.3%

P(Undervalued)83.0%

P(20%+ Up)78.0%

P(15%+ Down)13.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

83.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

8.6%/yr

±11.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

15.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Smurfit WestRock combined packaging giant; synergy realization ongoing; e-commerce structural demand.

Bear Case

Integration execution risk; cyclical packaging volumes; debt from merger.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

SW FY2025: Successful Integration, Commodity Headwinds, Cyclical Trough

Smurfit Westrock achieved M integration synergies by end 2025 post-Combination. FY2025 marked cyclical trough with Q4 mill downtime signaling overcapacity. Strong vertically integrated system offset b...