DCF FV=$62 vs price $38.96, P(above)=70.3%, target $55 = 41% upside. Strong asymmetry. Combined Smurfit-WestRock packaging giant, integration synergies as catalyst. Missing: near-term catalyst timing uncertain and packaging sector soft with industrial slowdown.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
83.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
8.6%/yr
±11.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
15.5%/yr
±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Smurfit Westrock achieved M integration synergies by end 2025 post-Combination. FY2025 marked cyclical trough with Q4 mill downtime signaling overcapacity. Strong vertically integrated system offset b...