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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
95.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-6.5%/yr
±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
15.5%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Sign in to unlockMargin recovery trajectory is real — .5B cost reduction program completed, targeting 35%+ gross margins by 2028. CAM sale (/bin/zsh.8B) reduces leverage and simplifies the portfolio. DEWALT professional tools brand remains durable with resilient demand.
Tariff headwinds from Mexico manufacturing shift and China rare earth restrictions create near-term margin compression. DIY demand remains soft in a suppressed housing market. Customer concentration (HD/Lowe's 27%) limits pricing power.
Gross margin below 30% for two consecutive quarters, CAM sale falls through, tariffs expand to cover more Mexico production
Updated Mar 16
SWK has successfully completed its .1B Global Cost Reduction Program and is positioned for margin recovery. However, 2025 earnings were pressured by tariff headwinds, customer concentration (HD/Lowe's...