TAP

Molson Coors Beverage Company

Consumer DefensiveBeverages - BrewersNASDAQ

$39.53

-$2.79 (-7.05%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$47.24

Upside+19.50%

Signal7.8

Market Cap$8.4B

52W Range$41.04–$62.14

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$180.60

Current Price$41.40

Upside / Down+336.2%

P(Undervalued)100.0%

P(20%+ Up)100.0%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-13.8%/yr

±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K: Major Goodwill Impairment Signals Volume Decline & Category Headwinds

Goodwill impairment reflects structural volume decline & category shift risk. Mature market exposure + concentrated brand mix = limited upside. Restructuring execution uncertain. Tariffs + labor costs...