TDG

TransDigm Group Incorporated

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$1,258.32

+$50.99 (4.05%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$1,567.86

Upside+24.60%

Signal0

Market Cap$66.0B

52W Range$1,123.61–$1,623.83

Next EarningsMay 5

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$597.07

Current Price$1247.82

Upside / Down-52.2%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)99.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

24.1%/yr

±4.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

32.4%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.

Trailing P/E37.6x

Forward P/E25.4x

P/S7.2x

EPS (TTM)$31.04

Analyst Target$1,567.86

Analyst Upside24.6%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

TDG Q1 FY2026: Strong TopLine, Margin Pressure from M&A Integration

TDG revenue +13.9% YoY to 2.3B but EPS down 13.1% due to acquisition margin dilution (Gross margin 59.2% vs 61.6%) and rising interest expense. Net leverage 2.9x, heading toward 3.5x+ after 3.2B in an...