Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
79.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-4.0%/yr
±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
15.0%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Target reports Q3 2025 comp sales down 2.8%, driven by traffic decline (-1.9% YoY). Gross margin compressed 50 bps for 9M, offset partially by advertising growth. Operating margin down to 3.8% from 4....