TGT

Target Corporation
Consumer DefensiveDiscount StoresNASDAQ
$116.64
+$1.61 (1.38%)today
Conviction
0/ 10
Fair Value$124.72
Upside+6.93%
Signal0
Market Cap$53.8B
52W Range$83.44–$126
Next EarningsMay 20

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$159.23
Current Price$117.05
Upside / Down+36.0%
P(Undervalued)79.7%
P(20%+ Up)63.6%
P(15%+ Down)11.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

79.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-4.0%/yr

±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

15.0%/yr

±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States.

Trailing P/E14.6x
Forward P/E14.0x
P/S0.5x
EPS (TTM)$8.13
Analyst Target$124.72
Analyst Upside6.9%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10qMar 2
Conviction: unchanged
TGT Q3 2025: Consumer Weakness Drives Margin Compression

Target reports Q3 2025 comp sales down 2.8%, driven by traffic decline (-1.9% YoY). Gross margin compressed 50 bps for 9M, offset partially by advertising growth. Operating margin down to 3.8% from 4....