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Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
94.1% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
4.3%/yr
±3.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
4.2%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
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Sign in to unlockWWE+UFC under one roof is a moat. Live sports rights are the last remaining linear TV hedge and streaming's ultimate premium content. Saudi/international expansion is early innings with massive monetization runway.
FCF pressured in 2026 by World Cup timing and Paramount deal economics. At $227, above $190 entry target. Near-term FCF yield ~3% makes valuation sensitive to execution. Stagflation hurts discretionary consumer spend.
Key talent defection, streaming deal restructuring at worse terms, UFC/WWE cross-brand confusion damaging sponsorship rates
Updated Mar 12
TKO is 1 dollar above 189.26 stop with multiple converging negatives: Wolfe downgrade to Peer Perform, Q4 EPS miss, 2026 guide below consensus, and WWE President Nick Khan plus Deputy CFO discretionar...
FY2025: Rev .735B (-3% YoY, Olympics timing), Adj EBITDA .585B (+47%), net income M vs. M loss prior year, FCF .159B. UFC .502B (+7%), WWE .709B (+22%). 2026 guidance: Rev .675-5.775B (+21%), EBITDA ....
Falcon deep read: Est ~.9B revenue post-Endeavor acquisition (UFC ~M, WWE ~M, IMG ~M, On Location ~M, PBR ~M). 500+ events, 1B+ households, 2B+ fans. Media rights appreciation (Paramount 7yr UFC, Netf...
FY2025: Rev .735B (-3% YoY due to Olympics comp), Adj EBITDA .585B (+47%), margin 33% vs 22%. UFC +7% rev, 57% margins. WWE +22% rev, 52% margins. FY2026 guidance: Rev .675-5.775B (+21%), EBITDA .240-...
TKO 2025: UFC/WWE consolidated, IMG/On Location/PBR added, media rights renewing at higher valuations. International growth runway. Discretionary spending sensitivity and talent retention risks.