Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
25.6%/yr
±7.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
53.7%/yr
±4.4% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
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Disciplined Permian consolidation: Badlands 100% ($1.8B) + Stakeholder ($1.25B) acquisitions. 11 Bcf/d gathering, 1.1 MBbl/d fractionation. $2.6B capex (8 processing plants, 3 fractionation trains, Sp...