FY2025 10-K headwinds (160bps fee compression, 57B net equity outflows) are real but now heavily priced at 9.5x PE. DCF FV $115 vs $87 current (P(above)=99.4%) signals deep undervaluation. Value thesis intact; missing near-term catalyst for re-rating.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
99.4% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-4.1%/yr
±3.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
3.0%/yr
±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
TROW reported strong .78T AUM (+10.5% YoY) driven by .7B net market appreciation, but net cash outflows of .9B pressure revenues. Investment advisory fees grew only 3.2% despite 7.4% average AUM growt...