TSCO

Tractor Supply Company

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$31.53

-$0.14 (-0.44%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$58

Upside+83.95%

Signal41.98

Market Cap$23.0B

52W Range$43.35–$63.99

Next EarningsApr 21

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$36.77

Current Price$48.78

Upside / Down-24.6%

P(Undervalued)21.5%

P(20%+ Up)9.5%

P(15%+ Down)61.5%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

21.5% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

9.4%/yr

±9.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

20.0%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

FY2025 10-K Analysis: Steady Growth, Margin Pressure, Tariff Headwinds

TSCO FY25: Sales +4.3% to $15.5B, comps +1.2%. Gross margin +16bps to 36.4% on cost management. Operating margin -41bps to 9.5% from SG&A deleverage. Net income flat at $1.10B. Strong FCF $1.64B. Conc...