TSN

Tyson Foods, Inc.

Consumer DefensiveFarm ProductsNASDAQ

$61.02

-$5.00 (-8.20%)today

Conviction

4/ 10

Fair Value$68.54

Upside+12.32%

Signal4.93

Market Cap$23.1B

52W Range$50.56–$66.41

Next EarningsMay 4

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 98% valid

Fair Value$197.59

Current Price$61.83

Upside / Down+219.6%

P(Undervalued)95.1%

P(20%+ Up)92.5%

P(15%+ Down)3.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

95.1% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-4.3%/yr

±8.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-2.5%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Q1 FY2026 Earnings: Beef Segment Crisis, Antitrust Settlements Compound Margin Collapse

Q1 FY2026 operating margin collapse to 2.1% driven by Beef segment losses (M), structural cattle cost inflation, and M antitrust settlement charges. Fair value dependent on Beef margin recovery to 2-3...