TTD

The Trade Desk, Inc.

Communication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesNASDAQ

$21.56

+$0.28 (1.32%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$31.12

Upside+44.35%

Signal31.04

Market Cap$10.6B

52W Range$19.74–$91.45

Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:05 PM6→7conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$22.34

Current Price$27.08

Upside / Down-17.5%

P(Undervalued)20.0%

P(20%+ Up)4.3%

P(15%+ Down)54.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

20.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

21.0%/yr

±6.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.3%/yr

±2.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

The Trade Desk programmatic advertising moat; connected TV CTV growth; Unified ID 2.0.

Bear Case

Google/Amazon competing DSPs; macro ad spending sensitivity; concentration in video CTV.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

TTD 10-K FY2025: High-Quality Ad Tech at Discounted Valuation

Leading independent DSP with strong CTV positioning and AI capabilities. 72% drawdown from highs creates attractive entry. Key risks: customer concentration, macro sensitivity, competition. Secular ta...