TXN

Texas Instruments Incorporated

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$305.68

+$7.47 (2.44%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$221.55

Upside-27.52%

Signal0

Market Cap$195.5B

52W Range$139.95–$231.32

Next EarningsApr 22

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$64.97

Current Price$194.13

Upside / Down-66.5%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

28.0%/yr

±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

42.2%/yr

±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Texas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, the rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally.

Trailing P/E36.3x

Forward P/E25.1x

P/S10.2x

EPS (TTM)$5.46

Analyst Target$221.55

Analyst Upside-27.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

TXN 10-K FY2025: FCF Inflection Imminent, But China Risk and SiLabs Overhang Complicate the Picture

Revenue recovered to .68B (+13% YoY), roughly matching 2023 peak. Gross margins compressed to 57% from near-63% at peak as 300mm capex cycle weighs. The critical 2026 story is CapEx dropping from .55B...