TXT

Textron Inc.

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$91.76

+$1.55 (1.68%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$98.95

Upside+7.84%

Signal4.7

Market Cap$15.9B

52W Range$59.94–$101.57

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$112.68

Current Price$91.86

Upside / Down+22.7%

P(Undervalued)70.7%

P(20%+ Up)52.2%

P(15%+ Down)17.6%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

70.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

1.3%/yr

±7.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

6.3%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Textron FY2025: MV-75 Acceleration + Aviation Recovery

FY25 revenue +8% on military aircraft and aviation strength, offset by margin compression from MV-75 development mix and inflation. Backlog +5% to .8B with strong defense orders. Near-term margin head...