UAL

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

IndustrialsAirlinesNASDAQ

$114.80

+$17.47 (15.21%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$131

Upside+14.11%

Signal8.47

Market Cap$28.4B

52W Range$55.18–$119.21

Next EarningsApr 21

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:10 AM5→6conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 92% valid

Fair Value$92.79

Current Price$90.28

Upside / Down+2.8%

P(Undervalued)51.4%

P(20%+ Up)39.5%

P(15%+ Down)39.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

51.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

6.3%/yr

±10.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

11.7%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Strong premium cabin demand; Pacific routes capacity constrained; earnings recovery post-pandemic capex.

Bear Case

Fuel cost vulnerability; tariff/recession risk on discretionary travel demand.

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

UAL 2025 10-K: United Next Execution Against Structural Headwinds

UAL executing United Next growth plan with fleet modernization and hub expansion, but facing severe labor cost inflation (new contracts driving material wage increases), operational constraints at key...