Target $39.50 vs current $35.47 = +11.4% upside — below the 15% threshold for lean-buy. Same-Store NOI growth only 2.4%. Regulatory headwinds (rent control), rate sensitivity. Solid operator but insufficient return for the risk at current price.
UDR 2025 10-K: Well-operated 165-property REIT with 2.4% Same-Store NOI growth. Regulatory headwinds (rent control in MD/NY/CA/WA) limiting pricing power. Geographic concentration risk (74.5% NOI from 8 markets). Fair value ~-42; hold.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
15.6%/yr
±4.9% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
10.2%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
UDR is a quality, well-operated, diversified multifamily REIT with scale (165 properties, 55K homes) and strong operational metrics (19.4% turnover vs 34% industry). However, revenue growth is deceler...