Upgrade to premium to see the full reasoning behind each conviction change.
Sign in to unlockFair Value Distribution — percentile bands
98.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-5.4%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
11.8%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
Upgrade to premium for full distribution data, sensitivity analysis, and segment breakdowns.
Sign in to unlockDefensive hospital operator with behavioral health pricing power. Tariff-immune domestic revenue. Mean reversion delivering.
Medicaid funding cuts under DOGE; not yet above 50MA; labor cost margin pressure.
Medicaid reimbursement cut > 10%, prolonged labor shortage
Updated Apr 8
BofA downgraded UHS citing anticipated Medicaid SDP headwinds and policy uncertainty extending into 2027; Q1 2026 earnings on April 27 represent near-term event risk. UBS partially offset by noting UH...
UHS delivered strong FY2025: 10% revenue growth, 31% adj EPS growth. Behavioral health outpatient expansion (10+ centers in 2026) is key growth driver. 2026 guide: 6-8% rev growth, 4-13% EPS growth de...
Medicaid reform legislation creates $432-480M annual headwind by 2032. Litigation tail risk material (Cumberland + Pinnacle). Geographic concentration elevated. Behavioral health segment more attracti...