UHS

Universal Health Services, Inc.

HealthcareMedical Care FacilitiesNASDAQ

$183.35

-$4.62 (-2.52%)today

Conviction

7/ 10

Fair Value$249

Upside+36.70%

Signal0.28

Market Cap$11.1B

52W Range$152.33–$246.33

Next EarningsApr 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 19, 2026, 3:09 AM5→7conviction-rescore

DCF FV $478 vs $190 stock (P(above)=98.7%), PE 8.2x, 31% analyst upside. Medicaid reform headwind ($432-480M/yr) is 2028-2032 — 6yr runway. Market pricing existential risk that is unlikely. Clear upside asymmetry.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$478.39

Current Price$193.47

Upside / Down+147.3%

P(Undervalued)98.7%

P(20%+ Up)96.8%

P(15%+ Down)0.2%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

98.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-5.4%/yr

±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

11.8%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case

Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

UHS 10-K FY2025: Medicaid Reform Headwind, Litigation Tail Risk

Medicaid reform legislation creates $432-480M annual headwind by 2032. Litigation tail risk material (Cumberland + Pinnacle). Geographic concentration elevated. Behavioral health segment more attracti...