ULTA

Ulta Beauty, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$508.85

+$4.85 (0.95%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$681.17

Upside+33.86%

Signal20.32

Market Cap$23.8B

52W Range$323.37–$714.97

Next EarningsMay 28

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$410.39

Current Price$516.74

Upside / Down-20.6%

P(Undervalued)19.7%

P(20%+ Up)6.0%

P(15%+ Down)59.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

19.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

10.8%/yr

±7.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

10.7%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 FY2025: Solid Comps, Margin Expansion, Space NK Integration, Macro Headwinds

ULTA delivered +6.3% Q3 comp sales and +5.2% YTD, driven by ticket +3.8% and transactions +2.4%. Gross margin expanded 70bps to 40.4% on shrink reduction and pricing power. However, SG&A deleverage (-...