UNP

Union Pacific Corporation

IndustrialsRailroadsNASDAQ

$262.64

-$2.77 (-1.05%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$271.67

Upside+3.44%

Signal0

Market Cap$148.7B

52W Range$204.66–$268.14

Next EarningsApr 23

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$89.98

Current Price$242.21

Upside / Down-62.9%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

18.9%/yr

±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

19.0%/yr

±3.2% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Union Pacific Corporation, through its subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, operates in the railroad business in the United States.

Trailing P/E20.5x

Forward P/E18.1x

P/S6.0x

EPS (TTM)$11.99

Analyst Target$271.67

Analyst Upside3.4%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

UNP FY2025 10-K: Best-Ever Operations, Norfolk Southern Merger Overhang

UNP delivered best-ever FY2025 results: OR improved to 59.8%, EPS +8% to .98, freight revenues +2% to .2B. Operational metrics at all-time highs (freight car velocity +8%, dwell -8%). Coal surge (+20%...