UPS

United Parcel Service, Inc.

IndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsNASDAQ

$106.69

+$9.16 (8.59%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$112.79

Upside+5.71%

Signal0

Market Cap$86.4B

52W Range$82–$122.41

Next EarningsApr 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$105.48

Current Price$97.40

Upside / Down+8.3%

P(Undervalued)58.4%

P(20%+ Up)37.4%

P(15%+ Down)26.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

58.4% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-1.6%/yr

±6.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

9.5%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services.

Trailing P/E14.7x

Forward P/E12.1x

P/S0.9x

EPS (TTM)$6.56

Analyst Target$112.79

Analyst Upside5.7%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

UPS FY2025 10-K: Amazon Exit Headwinds vs. Healthcare Pivot & Cost Reset

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