Triple-net REIT with 100% occupancy and CPI escalators — DCF FV $35 vs $28 (P(above)=82.9%). Caesars/MGM concentration (74% rent) is structural not variable risk and is priced in. 24% analyst upside but REIT distribution limits equity appreciation. Neutral — income play not a growth play.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
82.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
6.5%/yr
±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
0.9%/yr
±3.0% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).
VICI: High-quality scale REIT (100% occupied, B revenues, 93 assets) facing acute Caesars/MGM concentration (74% rent), Las Vegas geographic concentration (49%), and emerging competitive threats from ...