Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
68.7% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
0.7%/yr
±11.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-3.3%/yr
±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally.
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Valero faces structural headwinds: Benicia closure (-170K BPD), RFS Set II regulatory risk ('infeasible' compliance possible), California LCFS tightening (30% CI reduction by 2030), feedstock tariffs ...