VLO

Valero Energy Corporation

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ

$244.82

+$3.79 (1.55%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$234.56

Upside-4.19%

Signal0

Market Cap$71.4B

52W Range$101.66–$258.43

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 87% valid

Fair Value$330.48

Current Price$232.57

Upside / Down+42.1%

P(Undervalued)68.7%

P(20%+ Up)59.9%

P(15%+ Down)26.1%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

68.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

0.7%/yr

±11.5% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-3.3%/yr

±2.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Quick Take

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally.

Trailing P/E33.4x

Forward P/E16.0x

P/S0.7x

EPS (TTM)$7.57

Analyst Target$234.56

Analyst Upside-4.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

Valero Energy 2025 10-K: Refining Margin Compression & Regulatory Headwinds

Valero faces structural headwinds: Benicia closure (-170K BPD), RFS Set II regulatory risk ('infeasible' compliance possible), California LCFS tightening (30% CI reduction by 2030), feedstock tariffs ...