Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
25.2%/yr
±6.7% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
23.8%/yr
±3.3% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States.
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Aggregates leader capitalizing on infrastructure tailwinds with pricing power, margin expansion from 3-yr cash profit/ton +20%, and disciplined execution. Fair value $240-250/share (13x forward EBITDA...