VST

Vistra Corp.

UtilitiesUtilities - Independent Power ProducersNASDAQ

$160.23

+$11.98 (7.48%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$234.26

Upside+46.20%

Signal0

Market Cap$51.3B

52W Range$99.24–$219.82

Next EarningsMay 7

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 91% valid

Fair Value$32.38

Current Price$161.99

Upside / Down-80.0%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

28.9%/yr

±5.8% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

46.3%/yr

±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Quick Take

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States.

Trailing P/E69.5x

Forward P/E13.5x

P/S2.9x

EPS (TTM)$2.18

Analyst Target$234.26

Analyst Upside46.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 2

Conviction: unchanged

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