Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
28.9%/yr
±5.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
46.3%/yr
±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States.
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VST is a B market cap integrated gen + retail player with 43.6k MW capacity, 5M retail customers. Recent Energy Harbor nuclear acquisition (4k MW) + 2025 nat gas bolt-ons transform portfolio. Fleet op...