VTRS

Viatris Inc.

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericNASDAQ

$16.26

-$0.20 (-1.22%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$16

Upside-1.60%

Signal0

Market Cap$15.7B

52W Range$6.85–$16.47

Next EarningsMay 7

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$16.22

Current Price$13.51

Upside / Down+20.1%

P(Undervalued)67.6%

P(20%+ Up)50.1%

P(15%+ Down)18.4%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

67.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

-2.9%/yr

±4.4% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-1.4%/yr

±2.7% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Viatris generics/branded pharma; biosimilar pipeline (Humira, Eylea); deleveraging from Upjohn.

Bear Case

Pricing pressure in generics; biosimilar competition intensifying; integration complexity.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

VTRS 2025 10-K: Base Business Resilience Amid Operational Headwinds

Viatris 2025 10-K shows .3B revenues with renewed base business momentum, but significant manufacturing headwinds (Indore FDA warning, Nashik fire) threaten near-term supply. Strategic EWSR underway w...