WAT

Waters Corporation
HealthcareDiagnostics & ResearchNASDAQ
$294.29
-$7.33 (-2.49%)today
Conviction
4/ 10
Fair Value$394
Upside+33.88%
Signal13.55
Market Cap$28.8B
52W Range$275.05–$414.15
Next EarningsMay 5

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:05 PM64conviction-rescore

Target $30.50 is wildly below current price $296.64 — this target is clearly a data entry error (appears to be a remnant). BD acquisition integration risk + near-term refinancing headwinds. Cannot score reliably without corrected target. Downgrade to 4 pending full re-analysis to reset target price.

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid
Fair Value$90.28
Current Price$290.02
Upside / Down-68.9%
P(Undervalued)0.0%
P(20%+ Up)0.0%
P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

32.4%/yr

±4.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

39.7%/yr

±3.6% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Bull Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Bear Case
Queued for analysis

Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~6h).

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3
Conviction: unchanged
Waters 10-K (FY2025): BD Biosciences Acquisition Deep Dive

Waters completes .8B BD Biosciences acquisition (Feb 2026). Transforms from pure analytical instruments to diversified life sciences platform. B new debt requires Q1 2026 refinancing. M revenue + M co...