WM

Waste Management, Inc.

IndustrialsWaste ManagementNASDAQ

$224.38

-$9.03 (-4.03%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$254.04

Upside+13.22%

Signal0

Market Cap$92.8B

52W Range$194.11–$248.13

Next EarningsApr 28

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$182.93

Current Price$236.96

Upside / Down-22.8%

P(Undervalued)20.6%

P(20%+ Up)7.7%

P(15%+ Down)61.9%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

20.6% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

13.3%/yr

±6.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

14.7%/yr

±3.8% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally.

Trailing P/E34.3x

Forward P/E24.6x

P/S3.7x

EPS (TTM)$6.71

Analyst Target$254.04

Analyst Upside13.2%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

WM FY2025 10-K: Stericycle Integration Drag, Renewable Energy at Risk, But Moat Intact

WM FY2025 10-K review. Revenue .2B (+14.2% YoY, Stericycle-driven). Op EBITDA grew 13.3% to ~.7B. Core business execution solid but two headwinds: (1) Stericycle ERP/billing issues causing revenue mis...