WSM

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$203.57

+$12.33 (6.06%)today

Conviction

6/ 10

Fair Value$204.53

Upside+0.47%

Signal0.28

Market Cap$21.4B

52W Range$133.57–$222

Next EarningsMay 20

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$72.10

Current Price$182.36

Upside / Down-60.5%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

24.4%/yr

±6.0% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

17.6%/yr

±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

Q3 FY2025 10-Q: Strong Execution Amid Tariff Escalation

WSM executes well in Q3 amid tariff escalation and macro uncertainty. Margin defense working through pricing + sourcing, retail channel thriving, but housing TAM weak. Tariff risk material but current...