7→8: WE DO acquisition complete, margins expanding. DCF P(above) 91%, DCF FV $360 vs $288 = 24.8% upside. Analyst consensus 28.5% upside. Price approaching entry target ($285 — currently $288, essentially AT entry). Below 200dma is the one flag but DCF and analyst are overwhelmingly supportive. Conv-8 criteria: thesis validated (margins expanding) ✓ + catalyst (WE DO synergies realizing) ✓ + upside ≥20% ✓ + DCF P(above) >40% ✓.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
91.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-0.3%/yr
±3.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
5.7%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Hard market pricing boosts risk advisory; FCF accelerating; WE DO margin unlock.
Integration risk from dual acquisitions; professional services vulnerable to slowdown.
Integration stumbles cause margin miss; insurance cycle turns softer.
Updated Mar 30
FY2025 10-K confirms margin expansion thesis. WE DO transformation fully complete (zero restructuring/T&T charges vs $470M in 2024). Organic revenue +5%. Adjusted op margin 25.2% (+130bps). FCF $1.55B...
WTW is executing well on margin accretion strategy while scaling advisory platform. HWC declining to 55% of revenue (from 60% in 2023) as Risk & Broking strengthens, indicating portfolio pivot toward ...