WY

Weyerhaeuser Company

Real EstateREIT - SpecialtyNASDAQ

$24.51

+$1.03 (4.21%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$31.82

Upside+29.82%

Signal14.91

Market Cap$17.8B

52W Range$21.16–$27.86

Next EarningsApr 30

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

Mar 18, 2026, 5:05 PM6→5conviction-rescore

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 9% valid

Low confidence model

Fair Value$1.33

Current Price$23.73

Upside / Down-94.4%

P(Undervalued)0.0%

P(20%+ Up)0.0%

P(15%+ Down)100.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

32.6%/yr

±5.7% · revenue growth to justify current price

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Bull Case

Weyerhaeuser timberland REIT; housing recovery catalyst; lumber pricing leverage to starts.

Bear Case

Housing starts sensitivity to rates; lumber price cyclicality; wildfire/climate risk to timberlands.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10kMar 3

Conviction: unchanged

WY 2025 10-K: Housing pressure masks RE execution

WY navigating wood deflation while RE execution + climate solutions scaling drive diversification. Housing headwind near-term, but REIT structure + scale advantages intact. Housing recovery + climate ...