WYNN

Wynn Resorts, Limited

Consumer CyclicalResorts & CasinosNASDAQ

$101.22

+$2.75 (2.72%)today

Conviction

5/ 10

Fair Value$115

Upside+13.61%

Signal6.8

Market Cap$10.5B

52W Range$65.25–$134.72

Next EarningsMay 6

Conviction History

Conviction Changes

No conviction changes recorded

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Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 3,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$94.41

Current Price$100.63

Upside / Down-6.2%

P(Undervalued)44.2%

P(20%+ Up)25.6%

P(15%+ Down)42.7%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

44.2% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

13.8%/yr

±6.3% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

19.1%/yr

±3.1% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

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Bull Case

Wynn Macau VIP/mass recovery; Las Vegas non-gaming revenue growth; luxury positioning.

Bear Case

Macau regulatory risk; VIP junket market structurally smaller; high leverage.

Updated Apr 7

Research Feed

sec_10qMar 4

Conviction: unchanged

Wynn Resorts Q3 2025 Analysis: Macau Weakness, Las Vegas Stable

Q3 2025 saw strong recovery with M net income (vs. M loss Q3 2024), but YTD shows Macau structural challenges: revenues down 0.2%, Wynn Macau EBITDAR down 11.7%. Wynn Palace momentum (VIP win % 4.68%)...